MAR 29, 2024 JLM 74°F 12:44 PM 05:44 AM EST
Chronicle known in advance: Russian intelligence failure in Afghanistan and Ukraine

On the night of February 24, the Russian army invaded Ukraine. According to Russian war plans, the battle for Ukraine was expected to end within two weeks.

Russian forces invaded and began attempts to eradicate the Ukrainian army. Beyond the operational and logistical problems of the Russian army, its forces encountered severe civilian resistance that they did not expect. As of this writing, about six weeks after it began, it seems that the end of the battle for Ukraine is still a long way off.

On July 8, 2021, US President Joe Biden announced the advance of the withdrawal of US forces from Afghanistan after 20 years. American forces withdrew from Afghanistan on August 31, when it was estimated that the current government in the country, formed by the Americans, would last in power for one to two years.

On August 15, the United States began evacuating its forces, and two days later, the Taliban began occupying territory in the country. By August 30, with the completion of the American withdrawal, the country was already controlled by the Taliban.

What the two incidents have in common is that both are based on an intelligence failure, based on an incorrect intelligence assessment. This article will present the two incidents and the intelligence failure that is similar in its characteristics in both cases.

The role of intelligence organizations is to provide a snapshot and describe the reality to decision-makers - whether they are decision-makers at the political level or at the military / security level. Intelligence organizations are responsible for collecting information, cross-referencing, evaluating and constructing the picture of reality accordingly.

But the reality will never be clear, and there will never be gaps in its understanding. This is the work point of intelligence.

Intelligence assessment is designed to interpret known reality, clarify and bridge information gaps through scenarios, "intelligent" guesses and based on past knowledge. Intelligence assessment is done by people and therefore it, depending on our human complexity, will always be based on the psychological biases of those who evaluate it.

Biases include, for example, underestimation or overestimation of the opponent, the "herd" phenomenon, cognitive dissonance or other organizational and political elements. Therefore, intelligence failures will always be an integral part of intelligence work and are inevitable.

Intelligence failures lurk like a shadow behind some of the greatest disasters we remember, such as the warning of the Yom Kippur War or the attack on Pearl Harbor in World War II, the fall of the Soviet Union, the twin disasters, the failure of American intelligence to predict the Iranian revolution, and Saddam Hussein's misjudgment. The mass extermination, an estimate that underpinned President Bush's decision to invade Iraq in 2003.

At the end of the campaign in Ukraine, armies will turn to learning and learning processes. There is a lot to learn here, about the Russian weapons, operational planning processes, logistics, air and land forces integration, naval participation on land, the importance of accurate aerial missiles, the participation of unmanned aerial vehicles and aircraft, the importance of shoulder-fired anti-aircraft missiles, The role of the tank and land maneuvering, and more.

The campaign in Ukraine will also provide intelligence organizations with a broad cushion for learning - about the importance of visual intelligence in intelligence gathering, conducting intelligence operations beyond enemy lines, the use of human agents, the importance and role of influence operations and psychological warfare. But this campaign will be an interesting cushion for developing and updating theories, methods and tools for intelligence assessment at all levels - political, social, strategic and tactical.

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Comments
Bro Hes 11:45 08.04.2022
Church Israel: the Son of Man also teaches there will be wars and such, but the end up to y3k, must be calculated: to redeem the Church Israel time: for the days are evil. USAGOP.
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