Russia has deployed its most advanced S-400 air defense system in Syria, but the sophisticated weapons do not appear to be working against Israeli aircraft.
It is an open secret that Moscow, an ally of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, is allowing Israel to carry out airstrikes against both the Syrian army and Iranian militias operating in the country. Russia's control of Syria's airspace has helped turn the conflict in Assad's favor, so why is it allowing Israel to carry out its actions without interruption?
On December 28, Israeli fighter jets attacked the container complex in the port of Latakia, in the part of Syria where Russia maintains its main naval base. The attacks hit the yard of containers containing Iranian arms shipments.
This was Israel's second attempt to destroy this shipment. The first occurred on December 7, but was apparently less successful than the last air strike, which caused significant damage.
That night, neither Russia's S-400 nor Syria's air defense systems attempted to hit Israeli planes. The truth is that Russia never operates its air defense systems against Israeli aircraft. It is believed that such passivity is part of a broader deal between the two countries.
After the Kremlin began its military adventure in Syria in 2015, it reached an agreement with the Jewish state: Israel reportedly pledged to ensure the safety of Russian civilians and military installations in Syria during its attacks on Iranian militias and Syrian military targets. In return, Moscow promised not to use its weapons to repel Israeli attacks.
In that case, why did the Syrian army not respond with its weapons on December 28?
According to Kremlin sources, a Russian military transport plane descends to land at a warm air base - about 25 kilometers from Latakia - while the Israeli attacks took place, hence the Syrian air defense was not activated to repel the attack.
There is no doubt that the Kremlin wants to avoid incidents like this in 2018 in which a Russian intelligence plane, which returned to the Khalim with 15 service personnel on board, was accidentally hit by a Syrian S-200 surface-to-air missile. Moscow blamed Israel for the incident, claiming that Israeli planes put the Russian Il-20 plane into the path of Syria's air defense systems after not giving enough time in advance a warning to the Russian command of the intention to attack Syrian targets.
There were speculations that the Il-20 was hit by an Israeli F-16, but even if that were the case, the Kremlin never deviated from its usual verbal condemnation of the incident.
The tragic event had no effect on relations between Russia and Israel. Although the Russian army operating in Syria has the power to prevent Israel from harming Iranian and Syrian targets, Russia is constantly turning a blind eye to Israel's activities in Syria. The attack on the port of Latakia was not unusual.
For Assad and the Iranians, the Kremlin acts as an ally and unreliable partner. In 2010, Moscow refused to sell S-300 air defense systems to Tehran, succumbing to pressure from the United States and Israel. In 2019, Russia again rejected an Iranian request to purchase S-400 systems, fearing the sale would cause further tensions in the Middle East.
Even now, when the UN Security Council's embargo on conventional arms shipments to Iran is no longer in force, there is still no certainty that Moscow will sell the S-400 to Tehran.
There is fear of an imminent war with Russia.
Therefore, in order not to jeopardize its ties with Israel, Russia will probably refrain from deeper military cooperation with Iran.
As Israel's former national security adviser, Meir Ben-Shabbat, recently said, Russia shares Israel's view that Iran is a "power that undermines stability in the Middle East." He also stressed that Moscow's position on Iran is closer to Israel's position than has been publicly revealed.
Russia's passive stance on Israeli airstrikes in Syria clearly demonstrates that the Kremlin is unwilling to harm its relations with Israel for the sake of the alliance with Syria and a potential strategic partnership with Iran.
Just days before the attack in Latakia, Russian President Vladimir Putin and his Israeli counterpart Yitzhak Herzog held a telephone conversation and discussed bilateral cooperation.
Relations between Israel and Russia are historically intertwined with World War II, the establishment of Israel and the emigration of Russian Jews to live there.
There are up to 1.5 million Russian-speaking Israelis in the Jewish state, and some Russian oligarchs, such as Mikhail Friedman, have been granted Israeli citizenship.
Given that oligarchs play a very important role in Russian politics, and Moscow strives to maintain good relations with all players in the Middle East, the Kremlin is expected to continue to prevent Damascus from responding to Israeli airstrikes.
Syria is the weakest link in Russia-Israel relations, and Tehran, for its part, is unable to pressure Moscow to allow its Prussian forces to use Syrian territory as a base of action against Israel.
Russia will continue to balance the so-called axis of resistance (Syria, Iran and Tehran's proxy militias) with their sworn enemy Israel.
Image: Reuters