MAR 29, 2024 JLM 72°F 03:57 PM 08:57 AM EST
The Israeli security paradigms that need to be broken in 5782

The year 5781 ended with a warning. The escape of prisoners from Gilboa prison in northern Israel is much more than an isolated failure in terms of intelligence or security. It indicates that fatigue, preconceived thought, and professional mediocrity (in the best case) are spreading in the defense establishment (yes, including in the IDF, and I say that with a heavy heart on the basis of years of perspective).  

Even though the stunning failure was only a few days ago, there have already been many articles written about it, and more will be written. With the beginning of the new year, I prefer to focus on several paradigms that need, in my opinion, to be broken, or at least reconsidered, as soon as possible. This is being written from New York, which has yet to recover from the mother of all failures, which was expressed by the September 11 terrorist attacks that occurred exactly 20 years ago this week.     

1. "We won't let Iran go nuclear under any circumstances"

I'll start with the biggest paradigm of them all, which has been the basis of Israel's policy toward Iran for more than 20 years. This policy has indeed delayed the Iranian nuclear program for many years, but we must admit that the policy has not stopped it. Apparently, the policy has lost its effectiveness.   

Regardless of the nuclear agreement with the powers during the term of Barack Obama, the sanctions during the term of Donald Trump, and even cyberattacks and other disruptions, the Iranians are continuing their project, with increased intensity during the last year, as the U.S. displayed weakness and withdrew from Afghanistan with its tail between its legs.     

In terms of public statements, it is logical for Israel to continue to say "we won't Iran go nuclear". Actually, the time has come to invest massive sums in the Mossad and in the IDF (much more than is currently being invested) to neutralize the bomb or provide a different solution, while assuming that the bomb already exists. After all, it is mainly the will of the regime of the Ayatollahs that separates "the continuation of the nuclear project" from an Iranian bomb. At this moment in time, it is preferable for the Iranians to remain "on the verge" of obtaining a bomb. In that way, they hold the power of a nuclear state without paying a significant diplomatic price. The time has come to prepare properly for the day when Iran suddenly announces "we have a nuclear bomb". It could happen sooner or later. We should be prepared for it as much as possible. 

2. "Management of the war between wars"

The second paradigm that should be reconsidered is the Israeli policy of managing the "war between wars", mainly to prevent Iran's entrenchment in Syria, and to thwart the nuclear program (as in the case of the assassination of the head of the Iranian nuclear program, which was attributed to Israel). This Israeli policy has had enormous achievements, but the world is dynamic, and not only because Russia is playing a double game, with the Syrians and us. We need to consider our position all the time, and especially as far as the incidents in the maritime domain are concerned. Overall, 5781 was a year in which the maritime domain made headlines. 

3. "Management of the conflict with the Palestinians"

Actually, Israel has been trying to manage, rather than resolve, the conflict with the Palestinians for the last decade. The recent meetings between Israel's defense minister and the chairman of the Palestinian Authority were the first in many years. Is the new Israeli government reconsidering its policy towards the Palestinian Authority, and no less importantly, towards Jordan? Is it too late? When the Palestinian domain is relatively quiet, we tend to forget the previous waves of violence, and how Fatah was in Gaza when we went to sleep, but Hamas was there when we woke up at dawn. Currently the Palestinian domain is neither quiet nor boiling but it is heating up. And there is no need to mention here the warning that we received in the recent operation "Guardian of the Walls", which we did not win.   

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