Amos Yadlin, the former head of the National Security Agency, the former head of the Institute for Strategic Studies - INSS, and a research fellow at an American institute - claims that the media is creating a fake representation of the eve of an attack in Iran.
This is Yadlin's opinion of course, and there are others that disagree with him. Below is his analysis with his answers to many questions being asked:
The headlines of the newspapers and the television broadcasts, as well as the announcements of the country's leaders create an atmosphere of attack in Iran. It is hard to see a new development that justifies the headlines. The Air Force has been training for years on the ability to carry out such an attack and the Iranians have been a month away from fissile material for a bomb for three years. Below are answers to several questions to lower the panic level.
Is Iran close to a nuclear bomb? no and no! Iran is two weeks away from having enough enriched material for one bomb by 90%. In order to assemble a bomb, it must develop a complicated and sophisticated weapons system, and according to Israeli intelligence, this is a process that will take about two years from an Iranian decision to break into nuclear weapons (a decision that has not been made to date).
Did Iran cross the red line that Netanyahu drew at the UN in 2012? Absolutely yes. While Israel was busy with five election campaigns, Iran crossed the Israeli red line about 5 times and, as stated, has material for 5-7 bombs. In fact, Iran was careful not to cross the red line until Trump withdrew from the agreement in 2018 and since then it has been progressing consistently.
Is it still possible to stop Iran? Definitely yes. Israel must formulate a framework of agreements with the American administration: on Israeli freedom of action in scenarios of Iranian intrusion, on strengthening Israeli military capacity, on backing in a scenario of ongoing conflict and a commitment that after an Israeli attack, Iran will not be able to restore its nuclear program.
Are the US and Iran on the way to a nuclear agreement? It is not yet clear. There are signs that the dialogue between the US and Iran is progressing: preparations for the release of billions of dollars locked up in Korea, Japan and Iraq as part of a prisoner release deal. Agreements between the IAEA and Iran on the return of some of the agency's cameras in exchange for closing 2 of the four open cases.
The US has an interest in promoting agreements (not necessarily a formal agreement) that will freeze the situation with Iran and allow the president to focus efforts on China and the war in Ukraine - the two arenas that will determine his legacy in foreign policy.
It is in the interest of the Iranians to release the economic and political pressure and agree to freeze the nuclear program in its current position - after it has achieved the ability to build the core of an atomic bomb and in a way that will strengthen the legitimacy of the nuclear program and the regime while the entire JNA is moving towards an atmosphere of "regional amnesty" and that allows the Iranian leadership to move forward with nuclear whenever it wants.
Are Iranian-American agreements bad for Israel? Not necessarily. If the agreement rolls Iran back, freezes the "sunset" clauses (which remove the barriers to the Iranian nuclear program) and serves as the basis for a discussion on a "longer and tighter agreement" - Israel will gain valuable time to improve preparations to prevent Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons.
What not to do? In order to meet the highest goal set by Netanyahu: "Stopping Iran" - Israel must abandon the legislative initiatives that ignited the internal crisis in Israel, and concentrate efforts on quickly and effectively strengthening the Israeli economy and national resilience, which are critical to completing the security and political preparations for the campaign against the Iranian nuclear threat.