TIME April 19 2022, BY FREDERIC WEHREY: The last time Russian forces tried to topple an internationally recognized government it was in a country far from Eastern Europe and on a far smaller scale than today’s war in Ukraine. But what I saw in Libya was no less terrifying for civilians and similarly corrosive to national sovereignty—a testing ground, of sorts, for the conflict now raging in Ukraine.
That includes the use of mercenaries, which U.S. officials say President Vladimir Putin is resorting to as regular Russian forces falter, the death toll among Russian troops rises, and atrocities take center stage.
In the fall of 2019, I was reporting from Tripoli as roughly one thousand fighters from the so-called Wagner Group—a private military company that essentially functions as Putin’s secret arm—and some regular Russian military personnel joined the militia forces of a Libyan warlord in an effort to oust the sitting government.
In Libya, the Wagner fighters made a difference. While certainly sub-par by Western military standards, they nonetheless undermined the morale of government forces with relentless firepower and lethal precision, especially in the form of well-aimed sniper shots, with high-caliber, anti-materiel rifles.
One commander on the government side told me that thirty percent of the deaths in his unit were due to Russian snipers. And during a Wagner mortar barrage, I witnessed fear and panic in the ranks that I’d not observed in previous conflicts in Libya, including the months-long battle against the Islamic State.
But Libyan civilians bore the brunt of the Wagner onslaught. Entire families had died in the dust-strewn ruins of homes obliterated by Russian shelling. Months later, mines and booby-traps emplaced by Wagner fighters would kill dozens more.
In Ukraine, Russia appears to be repeating its Libya playbook. After failing to decapitate the Ukrainian government and seize the entire country, Moscow has pivoted to shearing off swaths of territory and freezing Ukraine’s conflict into a stalemate that stymies Kiev’s economic and democratic progress and its integration with the West.
And in late March, Pentagon and Western intelligence services reported that up to a thousand Wagner fighters, hardened by battle in Libya and an even bloodier intervention in Syria, are redeploying to Ukraine.