While Israel has been clear about its determination to prevent Iranian military entrenchment in Syria, as well as the trafficking of precision guided missiles (PGMs) to Lebanon through Syria, the Islamic Republic has shown equal determination pursuing its dangerous objectives in the war-torn country.
That puts Russia, which (like Iran) has a deep vested interest in preserving the Assad regime, in an awkward spot. While Moscow understands Israel's need to keep the Iranian-Shi'ite radical axis at bay, it is also unhappy about Israel's reported air strikes in Syria.
One of those strikes reportedly took place on July 22, targeting a site in the town of Al-Qusayr, in western Syria, near the Lebanese border. That incident came just three days after another reported attack against targets in Al-Safira, northern Syria – an area that has been closely linked to the Iranian-Hizballah PGM production program.
The smuggling or assembly of advanced weapons in Syria by Iran is an openly stated Israeli red line; Israeli defense officials have repeatedly stated that they will target such activity.
Recently, a series of media signals, apparently sent by Moscow, seem designed to tell Israel that Russia is concerned about this ongoing shadow war. Examples include a reported Russian claim that one of its air defense systems in Syria intercepted Israeli missiles from a July 19 Israeli strike in Al-Safira. The report includes claims that Russian air defense systems intercepted seven out of eight missiles fired by Israeli fighter jets.
This is joined by another recent media report claiming that Russia has "run out of patience" with Israel's activities in Syria, and is planning to change its position regarding Israeli air activities over the country. That report also claimed that Russia had begun supplying Syrian forces with more advanced systems that are capable of shooting down incoming missiles.
Israeli defense sources, meanwhile, have said that there are no changes in Russia's policy on the ground towards Israel, irrespective of the latest reports. A deconfliction hotline, used by the Israeli and Russian militaries to prevent unintended operational accidents in Syria, remains active and has even improved in its efficiency, sources told Israel's Maariv Hebrew-language daily.
While Israel has made it abundantly clear that the last thing it is interested in is accidentally harming Russian assets in Syria, this no longer seems sufficient in easing Russian signaling against the strikes.