MAR 29, 2024 JLM 75°F 12:53 PM 05:53 AM EST
The message to Israel from the USA: "Do not build on us, do what is good for you" - Brig.-Gen. (res.) Yossi Kuperwasser

During a visit to Washington two weeks ago, I heard a unanimous message from members of Congress - Do not rely on American backing 
The two options left on the agenda for dealing with Iran are problematic for Israel  Iran itself is preparing for a historic decision - which will be bad for all involved. 

It is likely that in the new Iranian leadership, where the voice of the realist elements has weakened (such as former President Rouhani or Foreign Minister Zarif), the argument that it is better to take the risk, which is insignificant to them, and rush forward is heard more strongly. 

After all, Iran has already literally reached the threshold of stabilization as a nuclear threshold country and has mitigated its economic distress thanks to Chinese aid and the tightening of the belt. 

All this means is that Iran only needs a few short weeks to produce military-enriched uranium for a first explosive device. Iran has also begun producing metallic uranium, a move that has no explanation other than an intention to produce nuclear weapons. 

The lack of response to the attacks on US bases in Syria and the attempted assassination of the Iraqi prime minister teaches the Iranian leadership that it has nothing to fear from a US response. This is despite the demonstrative flights of the American bomber B1 in the skies of the region. Israel is not ready to act at all, both because of gaps in its operational capability and because it has no American backing for such a move.

It seems that Iran is already practically preparing for the possibility that it will decide to act in this way. The acceleration of arms shipments to Syria and Hezbollah, which obliges Israel in recent days to increase the rate of attacks in Syria and the growing Iranian security in the quality and quantity of UAVs and missiles in its possession, indicate this.

The possibility of a return to the nuclear agreement as written and as worded, which in my view and in the eyes of many should be for Iran the safest and most convenient option to reach a large arsenal of nuclear weapons in less than a decade. 

The United States, which wants to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons but at the same time avoid a violent confrontation with it, sees a return to the nuclear deal as the preferred option. In the past, it has presented this as a first step, designed to keep Iran away from nuclear weapons, following which negotiations will be opened on expanding and strengthening the agreement, to ensure that Iran will never be equipped with these weapons. 

The preferred option for Israel is for the United States to cast its full weight to oblige Iran to accept an agreement that will address the many and dangerous weaknesses of the existing agreement. This was, by and large, the policy of former President Trump, and if he had won another term this policy might have had a chance. 

In the end, the Iranians gambled correctly, and now the possibility that Israel's preferred option will materialize is very low. 

Hence, we must prepare for the other two options. The question of which of them is better for Israel is to some extent theoretical, unless it is assumed that Israel can influence the Iranian decision and American policy. Although Israel has the ability, it should not overdo its weight.

In the past, this ability has been tested several times. In 2012, Netanyahu's threat to Iran through the bombing chart with the red line led to a halt to the 20% enrichment of uranium enriched by Iran. This persuaded China to join the pressure on Iran and prompted Obama to adopt a tougher policy towards Iran, in order to persuade it to open direct negotiations that ended in the nuclear deal. All this, to a considerable extent, to prevent an Israeli attack. 

The second attempt was Netanyahu's speech in Congress, which did not prevent the agreement from being implemented. 

The third attempt was to bring the nuclear archive and its disclosure, which contributed to Trump's decision to withdraw from the agreement. Other actions attributed to Israel harmed the nuclear project, but not only did not stop it, but were used by Iran as an excuse to justify violations of the nuclear agreement. 

The two options left on the agenda are problematic for Israel. If the Iranian plan is not thwarted, Iran could become a nuclear state in a relatively short time for all that that entails (a significant threat to Israel's security, the establishment of Iran's regional hegemony and a nuclear arms race in the region). An increased Israeli (or American) effort to prevent an Iranian approach to the status of a threshold state and perhaps even entry into such a status could lead, in medium-high probability, to a large-scale escalation.

So what should we do? First engage in close dialogue with the United States to clarify the importance of improving the agreement and halting the Iranian effort now to reach the status of a threshold state, refining the negative consequences of avoiding it and trying to gain American backing and military assistance where it is needed. 

Second, we must complete the preparations for action to thwart the current Iranian effort and the nuclear program in general, with or without American backing, while at the same time trying to encourage the Americans to lead this activity.

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Comments
John Baker 18:11 17.11.2021
USA must stand with Israel period
Julie Wendell 17:54 17.11.2021
Israel is not alone. Israel is the apple of God's eye. If only Israel will repent and turn to God alone, God will protect and defend His chosen nation and people. Don't depend on foreign alliances
Pamela Lovejoy 17:44 17.11.2021
The United States should be Bidens main focus. We cannot do nothing about climate change. That is up to God. We must pray for Biden amnistation. And for America 🇺🇸 and its people.
Jennie Hill 17:29 17.11.2021
What is there to say? We all better be praying because the Biden administration cares about nothing but climate change. Pitiful! But God won't let Iran do anything but destroy itself.
[deleted] 17:04 17.11.2021
This be bad for world.
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