Azerbaijan perceives Iran as posturing dangerously towards its southern regions, while Tehran is threatened by Baku drawing closer to the Islamic Republic’s regional rivals—particularly Israel. Absent a change in these dynamics, relations could further deteriorate, with tensions boiling over.

The dispute started spiraling in Sept. 2021—only weeks after Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi took office—when tensions escalated following reciprocal military exercises on the border. Iran conducted drills in its northwestern provinces, predominantly populated by ethnic Azeris, while Azerbaijan held joint maneuvers with Pakistan and Turkey. 

Since then, ties have been tested by both countries holding further exercises and practice operations close to the border. As Amwaj.media previously highlighted, competing discourses and irredentist claims in both Azerbaijan and Iran to territory within each other’s borders have only served to further inflame tensions.

The Baku-Tehran confrontation mounted significantly through 2022 and has led Iranian media to accuse Azerbaijan of colluding with its enemies, particularly Israel. Two main catalysts have triggered such sentiments in the Islamic Republic.

First, there is Baku's desire to build a new overland transport route, dubbed the Zangazur Corridor. Linking Azerbaijan with its Nakhchivan exclave via Armenia’s southern Syunik province—and possibly extending further onto Turkey—the route could cut Iran's direct access to Armenia, a long-time ally.

Second, Azerbaijan in Nov. 2022 approved a plan to establish an embassy in Tel Aviv and in January this year announced the appointment of its first-ever ambassador to Israel. Tel Aviv has had an office in Baku since 1992 but the latter previously refrained from reciprocating in solidarity with the Palestinians and in part to avoid drawing Tehran’s ire.

Source: Amwaj Media - Photo: Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev meets with Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi