One factor, regularly overlooked—or deliberately disregarded—in the discourse on Israel’s security, with far-reaching implications for its national security, is the crucial importance of the possibility of a regime change Jordan.
Israel must prepare for a daunting situation in which, along its eastern frontier, it could face a huge expanse of hostile territory, controlled by radical Islamist warlords, stretching from the fringes of Greater Tel Aviv to the border of Iraq — and beyond.
For Israel, the recent revelations regarding the financial machinations of the Jordanian monarch, King Abdullah, exposed by the release of the Pandora Papers, are likely to have far-reaching ramifications, which extend well beyond the hullabaloo of the public scandal and speculative media prattle.
Indeed, the exposé, involving a huge leak of confidential files of numerous past and present politicians, plutocrats, and other high-profile personalities (including Abdullah), from miscellaneous tax havens, harbor the potential for serious strategic impact, particularly on considerations regarding the long-term configuration of Israel’s eastern front.
However, as I have cautioned repeatedly (see for example here; here, and here), prudence dictates that for Israel, its underlying policy assumption ought to be that the Hashemite regime has a limited “shelf-life.” Accordingly, it would be highly perilous to base any long-term strategic planning on the ruling dynasty’s durability.
Indeed, in 2019, former Mossad director Efraim Halevy counseled soberly that Israel’s “security establishment should be devising plans to deal with possible future alternatives in the Hashemite Kingdom…”
Israeli strategic planners must, therefore, prepare blueprints for the country to contend with a daunting situation in which — along its longest frontier and narrowest dimension —it may well be confronted with a huge expanse of hostile territory, controlled by radical Islamist warlords, stretching from the fringes of Greater Tel Aviv to the border of Iraq — and perhaps beyond.
As Israel has little to no ability to determine who will — and who will not — rule Jordan, the only way it can avoid this potential nightmare scenario is to ensure it continues to control of these highlands itself — which ipso facto precludes the establishment of a future Palestinian state on them.