Why is Arab demography Westernizing?

In defiance of Israel’s critics and conventional wisdom, the highest-ever Arab population growth rate in Judea and Samaria (West Bank) occurred during Israel’s full control of the area (1967-1992).

Thus, from the end of 1967 (586,000 people) until the end of 1992 (1,050,000 people), the Arab population of Judea and Samaria expanded by 79%, compared to a mere 0.9% growth during the 1950-1967 Jordanian rule.    

When a Third World population is integrated into a Western population, it benefits from a considerable modernization of infrastructure, which triggers a surge in fertility rate ( and reduced infant mortality) and reduced emigration. But, the surge in population growth lasts for one generation, before falling due to modernization/Westernization, as evidenced in Judea and Samaria:

* Massive urbanization (from 75% rural in 1967 to 77% urban in 2021);
* Most girls complete high school and increasingly pursue higher education;
* Reduced teen pregnancy and substantial use of contraceptives (70%);
* Larger female participation in the job market;
* Rising marriage age of women from 15 year old to 22 and older;
* Shorter reproductive period from 16-55 year old to 23-45 year old;
* Higher divorce rate and youth emigration;
* Bottom Line: 9 births per Arab woman in the 1960s; 3.02 births in 2021.

Why is Israel’s Jewish fertility rate thriving?

Jewish demography has been impacted by the Israeli state of mind, which is top heavy on optimism, faith, patriotism, attachment to roots, collective responsibility, the centrality of children and frontier mentality in the face of costly Jewish history and contemporary existential threats in the stormy, violently intolerant, unpredictable and anti-“infidel” Middle East.

Unlike the generally pessimistic and less-patriotic European state of mind – which has produced an extremely low fertility rate of 1.5 babies per woman (2.1 is required to sustain an existing level of population) – Israel’s Left and Right, Doves and Hawks, secular and religious, wealthy and poor sectors of the Jewish population embrace the Zionist vision to buttress the Jewish State. They consider children (3.09 per woman) as a means to enrich their own lives, and secure the civilian and military future of the Jewish State.

Conclusion

*Israel’s unique secular and religious fertility rate reflects the sturdy state of mind of the Jewish State in the stormy Middle East, a most challenging region of the world.

*Israel’s robust demography refutes the assertion that its Jewish majority is threatened by a supposed Arab demographic time bomb. In fact, well-documented demographic data, since 1900, suggest that policy-makers and public opinion molders, who enunciate such an assertion are either dramatically mistaken, or outrageously misleading.

*Finally, the uniquely optimistic demography of the Jewish State reflects the unique qualities of the Jewish people, which have enabled them to overcome calamities, such as physical destruction, exiles, pogroms, the Holocaust and systemic anti-Semitism.