Col. (ret.) Dr. Jacques Neriah

Ethiopia announced it had begun the next stage of filling the massive hydropower Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam reservoir (GERD) on July 5, 2021. The parties involved – Ethiopia and the downstream nations of Egypt and Sudan – have apparently exhausted all rounds of negotiations on water-sharing and have reached a dead end.

In response to the Ethiopian move, the Egyptian Foreign Ministry declared, “This step amounts to a dangerous escalation and exposes the ill intent of Ethiopia and its desire to create a fait accompli against the two downstream nations without heed to the negative consequences and harm that could come to them.”1

The Sudanese government warned, “The unilateral filling for a second consecutive year poses an imminent danger and threat to Sudan.”

The UN Security Council is set to discuss Ethiopia’s plan on July 8, 2021, at the request of Council member Tunisia.

What’s at Stake?

The unilateral second filling of the reservoir is considered by Egypt to be an existential threat, and Sudan regards it as a threat to its population and infrastructure. While Sudan has been cautious not to proclaim its readiness to respond with force when the filling starts, Egypt has repeatedly said that it would consider such a step by Ethiopia as imposing a fait accompli and as such would be seen as a casus belli.

A few months ago, reports circulated in Egypt suggesting that Egypt’s Armed Forces planned a surprise attack on the dam on October 6, employing the same pattern conducted by Egypt against Israel in the 1973 October War. The ultimate conclusion of that war ended a few years later with Israel’s withdrawal from the whole Sinai Peninsula.

In order to show Ethiopia their seriousness about the dangers to Sudan’s and Egypt’s vital lifeline without a trilateral agreement, the two countries conducted highly publicized, joint military maneuvers in recent months. In November 2020, the two countries began a series of joint military drills (named Nile Eagles 1, Nile Eagles 2), with the latest conducted in May 2021 (Guardians of the Nile). The exercises included high-profile naval, air, as well as ground troops and special forces in offensive attacks, signaling to Ethiopia their intentions to secure the water sources of both countries. Ethiopia responded by beefing up its deployment along the Sudanese border.