Despite a collapsing Lebanese economy and considerable political turmoil, Hezbollah continues to threaten Israel. These threats must be taken seriously, given the Iranian-backed proxy army's Hezbollah incredible stockpile of long-range, medium range and short-range missiles that can reach every square inch of Israel.
I spoke last Friday with the Middle East Forum about the worst-case scenarios for a conflict between Israel and Hezbollah. The possibilities include a surprise attack by Hezbollah, an Israeli pre-emptive strike, an unplanned escalation and a multi-front war against Israel.
The situation is a powder keg, and one false move, can set any of these scenarios in motion. Israelis understood the surprise attack possibility in 2019, when they discovered several well-built tunnels that started more than a half mile inside of Lebanon, but crossed into Israel. Hezbollah could have used them to attack northern Israeli communities, trying to kill as well as take many Israeli civilians hostage. This kind of terrorist attack would have sparked a full-blown war.
Israel already lives under constant threat from Hezbollah's missile arsenal, much of which has been smuggled into Lebanon and retrofitted with advanced GPS guidance systems.
A multi-front war against Israel appears more possible now that Iraqi militias can use Iranian-supplied missiles which can strike inside Israel. From the south, Yemeni Houthis now have projectiles capable of reaching Israel's port city of Eilat along the Red Sea. In Syria, Hezbollah has battle-tested forces capable of attacking, and there are Iranian and Russian weapon systems ready to strike. Finally, Gaza is home to Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad, terrorist groups that have been firing rockets at Israeli civilian communities for years. If they all acted together, a five-prong multi-front war against Israel is the worst-case scenario.
In 2019, Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, went on Hezbollah's Al Manar television with his list of Israeli strategic targets that he wants destroyed during the next war with Israel. These strategic targets include Ben Gurion International airport near Tel Aviv, power plants, water desalination plants, nuclear sites, seaports, gas production facilities and the natural gas rig in the Mediterranean, petro-chemical production facilities near Haifa, Israel Defense Force's Headquarters/Ministry of Defense in Tel Aviv, air bases, naval bases, army bases, military industries, and important financial and commercial centers.
There is reason for skepticism that deterrence can work with actors like Nasrallah or Hamas. As for Hezbollah's ultimate goal, Hezbollah's stated goal is the same as Iran's – the destruction of the Zionist state.
The only thing stopping Hezbollah right now is the fact that the Israelis have a more powerful military and can inflict more damage against the Lebanese infrastructure, for which Hezbollah will be blamed.
Today, Lebanon is suffering the worst economic debacle in its history. Lebanese currency has been devalued by up to 90 percent in just the last year. Hezbollah is being blamed by much of the Lebanese population for the massive corruption that has led to this unprecedented economic crisis.