MAR 29, 2024 JLM 66°F 09:55 AM 02:55 AM EST
A new U.S. intelligence report assessing the situation in Syria in the near future
The U.S. Senate Intelligence Commission has released its annual report, in which it estimates that Russian-Iranian rivalry on Syrian soil will continue. The report stressed that after ten years of war, the Assad regime and its opponents have reached an unstable deadlock. The report points to the possibility that “most of the front lines will remain constant over the next six months. " "The regime will not resume the major attack on Idlib without clear political and military support from Russia, based on the previous unwillingness to confront the Turkish army directly," it said. "It is almost certain that the Syrian opposition is no longer able to pose a threat to the regime and instead seeks to protect its remaining areas of control in northern Syria and maintain Turkish support," the report said. Russia is also said to "maintain a long-term military and economic presence in Syria, which will allow it direct access to natural resources in order to continue to exploit them as well as expand its military presence in the country." The report states that Russia will work to normalize relations between the international community and Damascus, with the aim of encouraging investment efforts and rehabilitation of external factors, while reducing the impact of sanctions on the regime. It is worth noting that the Assad regime and Russia ceased their attack on Idlib, following their clash with the Turkish military invading force, following which a ceasefire agreement was signed between Idlib and Turkey in Russia in 2020, which continues to this day despite repeated violations.
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