Hezbollah’s refusal to disarm, along with the Lebanese government’s inability to rein it in, signals that Israel may soon be forced to deliver a crushing military blow to the terrorist group—pushing it to surrender or enter negotiations.

While recent events in Syria, particularly the massacre of the Druze in Sweida, have drawn attention, they have also overshadowed major shifts in Lebanon. During his third visit to the country, U.S. envoy Thomas Burke announced the failure of the ceasefire agreement signed between Israel and Lebanon in November 2024. He blamed Hezbollah's refusal to disarm and Lebanon's failure to restrain it.

Burke emphasized that the U.S. will not pressure Israel to make further concessions, especially given Lebanon's inability to meet its obligations. Meanwhile, Hezbollah has grown bolder, staging an armed parade in Beirut during Ashura. Participants arrested were quickly released. Hezbollah’s leader, Sheikh Naim Qassem, reiterated that the group will not disarm as long as Israel "occupies southern Lebanon." He cited the recent jihadi attacks on Druze and Alawite communities in Syria to justify Hezbollah's continued armament.