Washington seems to believe that sustained military, diplomatic and economic pressure can force Tehran’s rulers to change their behavior. Under this approach, the regime would gradually conclude that cooperation with the United States offers greater benefits than continued confrontation.

This resembles the American approach toward Venezuela: weaken and isolate the hostile regime, compel its remaining leaders to work with Washington and create conditions in which a more democratic, Western-aligned government might eventually emerge.

There are also echoes of the Soviet Union’s collapse. The West applied pressure, but it did not invade Moscow or directly overthrow the Communist Party. Economic decay, political reforms and internal opposition eventually caused the system to disintegrate from within.