A former senior Mossad counterterrorism official says Tehran has already demonstrated both intent and capability to strike on European soil and could escalate if tensions rise further.
Oded Elam, former head of the counterterrorism division at the Mossad and now a researcher at the Jerusalem Center for Foreign Affairs and Security, warned that the risk to Europe is real in the event of a broader confrontation involving Iran, the US and Europe.
According to Ilam, Tehran has previously shown willingness to operate inside Europe through intelligence networks and proxy operatives working under diplomatic or commercial cover. He pointed to the 2018 conviction in Belgium of an Iranian diplomat for involvement in a foiled bombing plot in France, arguing that the threat is not theoretical but based on proven operational capabilities.
Ilam added that Iran also possesses medium- and medium-to-long-range missile capabilities. In certain scenarios, parts of southeastern and central Europe could theoretically fall within range. Beyond direct military threats, he assessed that Europe could serve as a theater for deterrence operations, cyberattacks, or deniable terror activity.