Oded Ilam, former head of the Mossad's counterterrorism division and now a researcher at JCFA, sees clear signs of a dramatic shift.
"The cooperation between the U.S. and Israel is simply heartwarming — this is a historic moment,” he says. Ilam believes Iran’s nuclear and ballistic capabilities are currently at their weakest: “The Iranians are barely holding things together.
They no longer have the real ability to pose the existential threat they once did.” He adds that although the fate of 420 kg of 60% enriched uranium remains unclear, “they currently lack the ability to enrich it to 90%.”
Could Iran be facing an unprecedented internal upheaval? Ilam thinks so: “I believe the U.S. is in talks with elements in the Iranian military about a possible coup. They have experience with such moves.” According to him, Iran’s militias are weakened, and if a coup occurs, “it would come from within the Iranian army, possibly with limited involvement from elements in the Revolutionary Guards.”
As for the impact on Hamas, Ilam says: “Hamas is completely isolated… and this could lead to a deal that favors Israel.” He also linked the rescue of the three hostages' bodies to Israel's military pressure: “If anyone had doubts about the impact of that pressure, this rescue is part of the answer.”