Lebanon has signed a memorandum today with Egypt to purchase natural gas for electricity generation. But the key question is where Egypt actually gets gas it can sell onward.
Egypt does have domestic gas production, yet in recent years it has faced shortages due to declining output and rising domestic demand. As a result, Cairo has become increasingly reliant on imports — primarily natural gas from Israel — to close the gap.
The implication is clear: even if Lebanon is “buying from Egypt,” Egypt’s ability to supply gas onward may depend on Israeli gas entering the Egyptian system and freeing up volumes. This does not mean that “Israeli molecules” will necessarily reach Lebanon — gas mixes within the system — but it does mean that Israel indirectly affects Egypt’s capacity to supply gas to Lebanon.
In any case, this is not an immediate solution. Pipelines still require rehabilitation, and price and contract terms must be finalized. For now, this is more of a strategic, diplomatic–energy signal than gas flowing to Lebanon tomorrow morning.
