According to senior Israeli security officials, the organization is clinging to its hold on Gaza at any cost—even rejecting recent ceasefire and hostage deal proposals made by U.S. envoy Steven Wiktkoff.
Hamas condemned the U.S. veto of a June 4 UN Security Council ceasefire resolution and has dismissed negotiation efforts, seeing them as a cover for Israel's campaign to dismantle its rule—backed, in its view, by full American support.
Israeli intelligence assessments indicate that Hamas is encouraged by its continued ability to operate militarily and inflict casualties on Israeli forces. It has fortified large parts of Gaza with explosives, slowing the IDF’s advance.
However, beneath this surface, Hamas’s leadership is in chaos.
Officials say it’s unclear who is making decisions, who is authorized to negotiate, or even what the group’s strategy is. The prevailing approach seems to be to “buy time,” hoping for international pressure to shift the U.S. stance—much like what happened with Syria’s jihadist-linked regime under Abu Muhammad al-Julani.
Hamas draws hope from mounting symbolic international pressure on Israel, such as diplomatic boycotts by Spain, Ireland, and Latin American countries, and preliminary proposals from France, Saudi Arabia, and the UK to recognize a Palestinian state. Yet these efforts remain largely symbolic.
On the ground, the reality is stark: Gaza is suffering massive destruction, much of Hamas’s infrastructure is gone, and many of its leaders are dead. Israel has begun building buffer zones, providing aid through the U.S.-based GHF, and supporting the rise of local alternative Palestinian groups—like the militia led by Yasser Abu Shabab in Rafah—hinting at a potential governance shift.
Despite Hamas publicly floating the idea of a local governing committee, Israeli officials see this as a ploy to retain power behind the scenes.
Israel believes Hamas misreads the situation, underestimating its resolve to eliminate the group militarily. With strong backing from the Trump administration, Israel is pressing forward. No serious international plan currently exists to break the deadlock, and Western consensus holds Hamas responsible for the October 7 massacre—unlike the rehabilitated image of Syria's regime.
Hamas now operates on a dual track: engaging in talks while continuing violent resistance. But as Israeli pressure intensifies and its leverage declines, Hamas is losing both ground and international sympathy.