Erdogan aspires to restore the Islamic-Sunni order of the Ottoman Empire, and Syria is only the first step. "What drives Erdogan is neo-Ottomanism. He sees himself as the ‘original factory’ of the Middle East and wants to restore Sunni hegemony to the region,” says Cohen Yanrojek, in an interview with the Jerusalem Center for Foreign and Security Affairs’ East to West podcast. 

Elam adds: “Israel cannot afford a Turkish presence in southern Syria – it is a direct threat to its security.”

According to them, Erdogan is exploiting Turkey’s internal instability to divert attention outward, and the Syrian arena – including plans to arm the new Syrian army through Julani – is the main tool. 

“They don’t have to send soldiers with a Turkish flag – it is enough for them to arm their own people. "We will see Turkey's symbol in Damascus and Hama again if we don't stop it," warns Cohen Yanrojek.

The two describe a comprehensive plan by Turkey to build military power: purchasing advanced submarines from Germany, an aircraft carrier, electronic warfare systems, and also attempts to return to the F-35 program. 

"Israel must do everything to prevent Turkey from returning to this program - otherwise we will lose our air superiority," the researchers emphasize.

And as if that weren't enough in the Syrian arena, Turkey hosts Hamas, transfers funds to Hezbollah in Lebanon, operates in North Africa, Libya, Niger, Chad and Somalia, and openly supports the Muslim Brotherhood. "They are taking the place of the increasingly weak Shiite axis - and becoming the leaders of the Sunni axis," states Elam. 

And what about the US? Opinions here are divided. Eilam claims: "Only the Americans can mediate between Turkey and Israel and prevent a direct conflict." But Cohen Yanrojek warns: "We live in this neighborhood - not the Americans. We must first trust ourselves, not Washington."