Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan has openly warned that the unrest could undermine regional stability and serve as a pretext for foreign intervention, stressing that Iran must resolve its internal problems on its own.
President Recep Tayyip Erdogan initially avoided direct comment, but in a phone call with Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian on January 22, he emphasized the importance of Iran’s stability and Ankara’s opposition to any external involvement.
Turkey’s approach rests on three main concerns: fear of Israel’s growing regional influence, the Kurdish issue, and the risk of a massive refugee influx. While some Turkish discourse veers into conspiracy theories blaming Israel and the US for every regional crisis, Ankara’s core worries are largely pragmatic.
Turkish decision-makers believe that a collapse of the Iranian regime would significantly expand Israel’s influence in the region, creating an inherent clash of interests. Whereas Israel and the West view the fall of the Islamist regime as a strategic objective, Turkey sees such a scenario as a direct threat.