An Arab diplomat was walking the corridors of the MEAD conference when news broke of the assassination attempt in Qatar. Asked for his reaction, he replied: “This is very serious.”

But a broad smile spread across his face as he repeated: “Very serious,” while continuing to grin.

Exactly one year ago, the same forum convened in Washington under very different circumstances. At that time, Israel looked battered and cornered: it was a week after the murder of six hostages, a week before the pager attack, and the Biden administration was defending a partial arms embargo. U.S. envoy Amos Hochstein argued Israel had nothing to gain from war with Hezbollah, while Iran raced ahead with its nuclear program.