According to the assessment of Col. (Ret.) Dr. Jacques Neria, a senior researcher at the Jerusalem Center for Foreign and Security Affairs, the historic event is an earthquake that changes the regional balance, especially for Hezbollah which finds itself weakened.
According to him, "This creates an opportunity for Israel to integrate into new circles in the Middle East, but we must be careful and not rush to act."
In a dramatic development in the Syrian civil war, Bashar Assad's regime has fallen this morning (Sunday) after 58 years of rule by the Assad family. According to Col. (Res.) Dr. Jacques Neriah, a senior researcher at the Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs, this historic event is a seismic shift that alters the regional balance, particularly for Hezbollah, which now finds itself weakened. He states, "This creates an opportunity for Israel to engage in new circles in the Middle East, but we must be cautious and not rush to act."
Dr. Neriah explains that the new rebel leadership under Abu Muhammad al-Julani is attempting to soften the organization's image, which is designated as a terrorist group by the United States: "Based on his actions, he does not intend to target state institutions and has decided to bypass two Shiite towns. This indicates an intention to appear more state-like."
This assessment aligns with a CNN report that al-Julani, who has recently been using his official name Ahmad al-Shara, is trying to present a completely different image from his last interview in 2013, when he refused to show his face. He is now being interviewed openly and in daylight as part of efforts to legitimize the organization.
Additionally, Dr. Neriah notes that the new situation highlights several key developments, foremost the withdrawal of international allies. Russia, which was a key supporter of the Syrian regime, appears to have abandoned Assad, with no significant Russian air force activity against the rebels.
Meanwhile, Hezbollah has suffered a major blow in its attempts to play a central role in supporting the regime. "The organization sent between 1,200 and 10,000 fighters to Syria to assist Assad, but now it seems that the regime's fall has left them without a strategic backbone. What is happening in the country is an earthquake that we have not seen since 1966 with the coup led by Assad's father," the researcher explained, adding: "In effect, this signifies the collapse of the Shiite axis in the region, with Iran finding itself isolated and challenged."
From an Israeli perspective, Col. (Res.) Dr. Neriah sees this as a significant strategic opportunity. The current developments provide Israel with greater operational freedom in the area, as well as a chance to integrate into the triangle of relations between the Syrian opposition, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia. However, there is a need to address the issue of strategic weaponry in Syria, including Scud missiles, air defense systems, and various arms factories.
The expert warns that Assad's disappearance could lead to a period of instability. Israel, which prefers stability amid the ongoing war in Gaza, must remain alert to developments. "At this stage, the rebels are too busy with the final overthrow of the regime and will not become embroiled in a conflict with Israel," he assesses, concluding: "However, the situation is dynamic, and the future of the region remains unclear." Overall, it seems that recent developments mark a dramatic turning point in the Syrian civil war, which could alter the face of the region in the coming years.