Last weekend, US President Donald Trump declared that he had ordered the Pentagon to "prepare for possible action in Nigeria" due to harm to Christians in the country.
Against the backdrop of Trump's claims that "radical Islamists" are responsible for a "mass massacre of Christians" in Nigeria, and alongside the announcement that the country will be returned to the list of countries "of particular concern" with regard to religious freedom, the question is becoming more acute as to whether this is a threat that the US could actually carry out.
The US military, and in particular Africa Command (AFRICOM), has the military capability to carry out an air strike or a limited operation in African territory. In practice, this capability relies on complex political and logistical conditions: accessibility to nearby bases, cooperation from host countries, and legal permits to operate outside US borders.
In recent years, AFRICOM's direct presence in the western part of the continent has been weakened, mainly following the US withdrawal from Niger, Nigeria's neighbor, in 2024. This step has hampered the ability to quickly deploy aircraft, drones, and special forces to the Sahel region and northern Nigeria - areas where jihadist terrorist organizations such as Boko Haram and ISIS operate.
