Turkey is increasingly alarmed by developments in Iran, with senior figures in Ankara warning that if the regime in Tehran collapses, Turkey could be next in what they describe as a Western-led “colonial game.”
In his first public comments on the unrest in Iran, President Erdogan said on January 10 that after 12 days of Iran–Israel war, Iran now faces a new test framed as “peace and stability.” He expressed confidence that the “Iranian brothers,” through measured and wise policies, would overcome this “trap-filled” period. Erdogan, a harsh critic of Israel in recent years, appears to view Israel as an active force behind the Iranian street protests.
Supporters of Erdogan were more explicit, claiming that the Iranian protests are backed by Israel and the Mossad. They warn that if Tehran’s government falls, Turkey would be the next target in this broader geopolitical process. Ankara is also concerned that a war in Iran could trigger a mass influx of Iranian refugees into Turkey.
Another major fear among Erdogan’s allies is that unrest could spill over from Iran into Turkey itself. After years of high inflation and rising prices, Ankara worries that economic protests could rapidly evolve into political unrest, following a pattern similar to Iran’s.
