Last Friday, representatives from the US, Iran, and regional countries met in Istanbul — but as analyst Aviram Belaish argues, this was not a peace summit. It was a rescue arena. “This is a space where every player is trying to escape their own trap at the expense of the others.”
President Donald Trump, who has sent what he described as a “massive armada” to the Gulf and warned of “violence if necessary,” cannot afford to return empty-handed. Iran, for its part, desperately needs sanctions relief — but cannot be seen as defeated. As Belaish notes, “For Trump, honor matters no less than pride matters to Tehran.”
The regional mediators are far from neutral, and hovering over the talks is a deeper fear: the possible collapse of the Iranian regime. “That,” Belaish explains, “is precisely why everyone — including Trump — is looking for a diplomatic solution. Not because they believe an agreement will solve the problem, but because they fear the alternative.”
And meanwhile, there is one actor missing from the table: the Iranian people. They lose in every scenario, as American forces wait in the Gulf and all sides remain locked in a standoff driven less by hope — and more by fear.