The stakes are higher than ever as the country arrived at a crossroads: will Germans vote for four more years of much of the same by switching from one establishment party to another or finally choose an alternative path for Germany?

Much like in other European countries, Germany’s anti-establishment forces saw a huge boost in popularity in recent months, with the right-wing populist AfD projected to snatch second place with over 20% of the final vote. 

AfD voters feel that no other party is willing to truly face the country’s biggest problem which they identify as a mass migration-induced rise in crime, high energy prices, deindustrialization due to rushed climate policies, and the decline of free speech and other basic liberties as authorities crack down on “hate speech” and “misinformation.”

For others, the main issue is no longer any specific political challenge, but preventing the rise of AfD as the election is presented in mainstream media as a 1933-like turning point when “right-wing extremism” can reach a critical threshold. 

Still, the disillusionment with Germany’s ‘traffic light’ coalitions is palpable, as Chancellor Scholz’s ruling socialists (SPD), liberals (FDP), and the Greens are predicted to suffer major setbacks. Instead, a plurality of voters is expected to support Friedrich Merz’s center-right CDU, which has undertaken a gradual but steady shift toward the right during the campaign, especially when it comes to migration and climate.

The biggest post-election question will be whether the German Bundestag’s infamous firewall against the AfD will hold. 

The CDU has ruled out any coalition with the national conservative party (despite two-thirds of Germans backing some form of cooperation between the two), but the extent to which the second-largest party could be excluded from decision-making will depend on the final composition of the parliament.