Senior Israeli security officials report a serious internal rift between Hamas’ political leadership abroad and its military wing in Gaza, following the release of Israeli soldier Idan Alexander.
YONI BEN MENACHEM -- The tensions escalated after what appears to be the targeted killing of top Hamas military commanders, including Mohammed Sinwar (military chief), Mohammed Shabana (Rafah Brigade commander), and others, in a precise Israeli airstrike on May 13.
Under pressure from the Trump administration and Qatari leadership, Hamas official Khalil al-Hayya—who is leading ceasefire and hostage negotiations—forced Sinwar to release Alexander.
But instead of a deal with Israel, the IDF and Shin Bet responded with a targeted strike on Sinwar and his aides, infuriating Hamas' military wing and deepening the internal divide. Currently, Gaza Brigade commander Izz al-Din Haddad is temporarily managing military affairs due to the leadership vacuum.
According to Israeli security sources, the elimination of the Sinwar family—long the backbone of Hamas’ military operations in Gaza—has severely weakened the group, especially in Khan Younis, their stronghold. Around 20 other members of the Sinwar clan, also part of the military wing, were killed. With the Rafah Brigade already neutralized, this presents a strategic opportunity for the IDF to defeat Hamas’ Khan Younis Brigade—an essential step toward collapsing Hamas’ control over Gaza.
Hamas is reportedly scrambling to control humanitarian aid entering the Strip. The U.S.-backed humanitarian distribution company now operating there is seen by Israel as a vital tool in further weakening Hamas.
Gaza residents are increasingly aware of Hamas' weakening grip. Protests against Hamas have resumed, driven by food shortages and the group's looting of humanitarian convoys.
IDF forecast: 75% control of Gaza within two months
Senior military sources estimate that the IDF will achieve full military control over 75% of Gaza within two months—up from about 40% today. While Hamas’ civil infrastructure is crumbling, it still retains some military capabilities that must be eliminated to ensure its downfall.
The IDF believes Hamas has a few thousand rockets and mortars left, which it is using sporadically to signal continued resistance.
Meanwhile, the full evacuation of Khan Younis (200,000 residents relocated to al-Mawasi) enables the IDF to focus on destroying the remaining terror infrastructure and militants in the area.