Israel’s recent powerful airstrikes on Iran have sparked growing concern among Russian military analysts, who note disturbing parallels between Iran’s failing air defense systems and Russia’s own troubled track record in Ukraine.
The Israeli operation penetrated deep into Iranian territory, destroying critical air defense assets without meeting meaningful resistance. In response, Russian observers are publicly questioning the reliability of their own air defense systems—many of which share technological roots with Iran’s.
Commentary across Russian-language military forums and pro-Kremlin channels suggests that Israel’s success has reinforced existing doubts about Russia’s ability to withstand a coordinated assault from a technologically advanced adversary like NATO.
While Ukraine relied on relatively cost-effective systems—such as HIMARS, drones, and aging AGM-88 HARM missiles—Israel used advanced cruise missiles and layered aerial strike strategies. Despite the technological and scale differences, both situations revealed striking vulnerabilities in Russian and Iran-linked air defense architectures, which are based on older-generation systems.
Security experts in Moscow acknowledged that Iran’s air defenses—many based on Russian designs—failed to mount any meaningful resistance even during the second day of Israeli attacks.
In online discussions, Russians admitted: “Our air defense isn’t fully effective. What we see on the front lines is all we truly have.”
This concern is backed by credible battlefield data. According to independent monitoring group Oryx, Russia has lost at least 335 air defense systems since February 2022, including 18 S-400 launchers, one S-350 platform, over 30 Pantsir-S1 systems, and nearly 60 Tor units. These figures are based on visually confirmed losses and are considered conservative.
Despite years of promoting systems like the S-400 as robust deterrents against Western airpower, Russia’s combat experience in Ukraine tells a different story. Even low-cost Ukrainian drones and HIMARS rockets have consistently penetrated Russian defenses.
Now, with Russian-supported defenses in Iran collapsing under Israeli assault, the Russian military establishment is being forced to reexamine both its doctrines and real-world capabilities. Concerns are growing—and becoming more public—that Russia’s own strategic sites and critical infrastructure could be devastated within hours in a NATO-led attack.
While not aimed at Russia, Israel’s aerial campaign has become a vivid demonstration of what a modern, coordinated air force can achieve against outdated or poorly integrated defenses—many of which are tied directly to Russia’s technological legacy.