According to Enten, Trump’s approval rating among African Americans has risen from 12% at a similar point in his first term to 16% today. While Democrats still maintain a strong lead with Black voters, that advantage has narrowed compared to previous years.

Enten emphasized that the Republican Party is “chipping away” at what has historically been a dominant Democratic margin. Party identification data shows Democrats once held a 63-point advantage among Black voters, but that lead has shrunk by roughly 12 points—marking one of the smallest gaps in modern polling history.

The shift could have meaningful electoral consequences, especially in competitive regions like Georgia, where even modest changes in voter alignment can decide tight races. Enten noted that these trends “could have major ramifications” and potentially help Republicans win key contests in the South.