For Israel, it would mark a significant leap forward in regional legitimacy, especially coming from the Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques. For the Saudis, it would cement their role as a pragmatic leader in the Arab world. But the question remains: at what cost—and is it worth it?

Saudi recognition would certainly have strategic benefits. Open cooperation could lead to expanded trade, tourism, and technology sharing. It could also mean a powerful Sunni Arab ally in efforts to contain Iran. But here's the reality: much of this is already happening without formal recognition.

Israeli and Saudi officials have reportedly held quiet meetings for years. Intelligence coordination against Iran and its proxies like Hezbollah is ongoing. Israel was allowed to use Saudi airspace for eastbound flights. Israeli cybersecurity firms have allegedly sold tools to the Kingdom. And when missiles from Yemen targeted Saudi oil fields, it wasn’t a secret that Israeli technology may have helped defend against them.

In other words, the relationship exists—it’s just not on paper.

And what is Saudi Arabia asking in return for that signature? A commitment to a Palestinian state. Not autonomy. Not economic investment. A full-fledged state. For Israel, this is a red line. In the wake of the October 7th massacre and continued threats from Hamas, the Israeli public and leadership alike see the creation of a Palestinian state as a threat to national security—not a step toward peace.

The illusion that peace with Riyadh must go through Ramallah is outdated. The Abraham Accords proved that Arab states can normalize with Israel without linking it to the Palestinian issue. Saudi Arabia is free to set its own terms, but Israel is equally free to say no.

Normalization would be nice—but Israel does not need recognition from Saudi Arabia. The ties already exist where they matter most: defense and intelligence. Actual diplomatic ties with the Saudis on paper is, of course, not worth national suicide.

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