A large-scale US air campaign could weaken Tehran significantly, but intelligence assessments say it is unlikely to collapse the regime on its own.
Talks between the United States and Iran are expected to take place in Muscat, Oman, following heavy pressure from Arab and Muslim states on the administration of Donald Trump not to cancel them, despite deep US skepticism over their chances of success.
Trump has continued to publicly threaten Iran and warn Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, while Tehran claims it is facing a joint US-Israeli “psychological war.” Iranian officials stress that the Oman talks will be limited strictly to the nuclear issue. Against this backdrop, Israel’s security cabinet is expected to convene to discuss developments on the Iranian front.
Arab analysts caution that military intervention in Iran carries serious risks due to the country’s complex ethnic and social structure, which includes Persians, Azeris, Baluchis, Kurds, and Arabs. They warn that external strikes could deepen internal fractures, potentially sliding into civil war, generating major refugee flows toward Turkey, and fueling regional instability and terrorism. Additional concerns include the fate of Iran’s enriched uranium stockpiles and possible chemical or biological risks.
