Turkey projects the image of an “independent power,” yet its economic stability remains heavily dependent on access to foreign currency and global capital markets.
Turkey’s external debt stood at approximately $565 billion as of late September 2025. The more immediate pressure point is refinancing: roughly $224 billion in external obligations must be rolled over within a year. That rollover requirement — not just the headline debt figure — is the core vulnerability.
Crucially, this is not primarily a story of runaway government borrowing. Public debt remains relatively moderate, at around 24.5% of GDP, meaning Ankara is not facing an imminent sovereign default scenario. The larger exposure sits with banks and private companies that borrowed in foreign currencies. When revenues are largely in Turkish lira but liabilities are in dollars or euros, exchange-rate volatility becomes a systemic risk.
This creates a structural dependency. Each morning, policymakers in Ankara must ensure that international markets — alongside capital from Gulf states — remain willing to provide dollar liquidity. If investor confidence weakens, the consequences could be swift: pressure on the lira, higher borrowing costs, tighter credit conditions, and political strain at home.
