“Nobody is saying Hezbollah is initiating a confrontation right now — it’s still rebuilding its ranks after losing roughly 2,500 senior commanders,” Neriya said. “Since the ceasefire Israel has eliminated about 370 more Hezbollah operatives, but the organization is rearming, producing precision-guided missiles and building combat facilities — all under direct Iranian patronage.”

He points to an internal struggle for control in Lebanon between Hezbollah and President Michel Aoun and his prime minister, and warns of Hezbollah’s attempt to “turn Lebanon into the 32nd province of the Islamic Republic of Iran.” According to Neriya, Hezbollah is already changing symbols and place names and sheltering figures from the Syrian regime — moves he says are part of converting Lebanon into a full Iranian enclave.

“We ended the previous war with unfinished business,” Neriya added. “To finish it properly will require another round, but Israel must not enter Lebanese territory — that would be the trap Hezbollah is waiting for.” He argues the correct response is a focused, sustained air campaign, as in September 2024: “Between September 18 and 23, Israel carried out more than 1,100 sorties against Hezbollah targets. That produced results — and it’s the way to dismantle the organization without paying the price of a costly, dangerous ground invasion.”