Since Bahrain’s announcement on forging ties with Israel, demands within Iran to restore Bahrain to Iranian rule have returned with greater intensity.
Lt. Col. (ret.) Michael Segall
Iran has repeatedly warned recently that it sees Israeli activity in Bahrain as endangering its own security interests and declares that it will not hesitate to attack targets in the kingdom, whether by itself or through its proxies.
Bahrain is of particular historical, religious, and political importance to Iran. Bahrain was once under Persian rule (1602-1783), and as Iranian’s “14th province,” it sent representatives to the Iranian Majlis (parliament). A recent documentary film, The 14th Province, has won prizes in Iranian film festivals organized by revolutionary elements.
A Sunni minority rules Bahrain’s Shiite majority, and part of the population is Persian in origin. Increased Iranian subversion in the kingdom through local Shiite terrorist groups and Shiite opposition parties operated by Iran is highly likely. Leading Iranian media, such as Kayhan, which reflects the opinions of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, are already inciting Bahrainis to pick up arms.
Terrorist cells in Bahrain operate with Iranian supervision and funding. Although most of these cells have been thwarted by Bahrain, those still active are capable of destabilizing the country if Iran turns up the flames.
Another question is whether Iran will try to invade Bahrain in a manner reminiscent of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which Tehran supports. Bahrain is susceptible to an Iranian strike involving ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and drones on strategic targets in the kingdom, despite the fact that it hosts the U.S. Navy’s main naval base for the Fifth Fleet in the Gulf region.
Top Iranian Officials Lambast Growing Ties with Israel
In his weekly press conference on April 4, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Saeed Khatibzadeh drew a connection between the expected appointment of an Israeli military attaché to the headquarters of the U.S. Fifth Fleet, which is stationed in Bahrain, and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC’s) missile attack on Erbil in mid-March.2 Asked what the appointment meant for Iran, Khatibzadeh said it could be summed up in one word, “Erbil,” and added that Israel “is doing all it can to prevent the normalization of the situation in the region [i.e., the Gulf and Iraq].”
Will Iran Invade Bahrain?
Another question is whether Iran, which is genuinely concerned about the growing “Zionist” presence in the Gulf region and on its northern border, will try to invade Bahrain in a manner reminiscent of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which Tehran supports.15 Iran would thereby aim to regain sovereignty over a country it sees as its rightful possession and as posing a growing danger to its security, even if this entails risking a direct confrontation with the United States and Saudi Arabia. Such a scenario has probably been discussed in Iran, and contingency plans have been developed to implement it. For now, books and films on the subject are being produced there, possibly to prepare local public opinion for such a move.
Meanwhile, Bahrain is more susceptible to an Iranian strike (involving ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, drones, etc.) on strategic targets in the kingdom to demonstrate its anger over the warming of ties with Israel, as Tehran hinted recently. American anti-aircraft radars and defenses for the Fifth Fleet based in Bahrain would detect any attack on the country. Iran may, deliberately or not—hit U.S. military targets as part of a confrontation in the Persian Gulf.