Former U.S. President Donald Trump is expected to visit Saudi Arabia on May 13. Israeli officials believe reaching a hostage deal and ceasefire in Gaza before his visit will be very difficult. Since the war began, Saudi Arabia has taken a harsh stance toward Israel, repeatedly condemning IDF actions in Gaza.

Israeli political sources assess that Riyadh aims to deepen its political, security, and economic ties with the Trump administration—without linking them to any normalization with Israel. This could become clearer during Trump’s visit to Riyadh. It remains uncertain if Trump will accept such a separation.

During the Biden era, talks around normalization envisioned a three-way deal: the U.S. would provide Saudi Arabia with a defense pact, advanced weapons, and support for a civilian nuclear program—while Israel and Saudi Arabia would normalize relations. But Saudi Arabia has demanded a firm Israeli commitment to a two-state solution, which Israel refuses, even at a declarative level.

Currently, Saudi Arabia seems to be stepping away from normalization with Israel, preferring direct bilateral deals with Trump’s administration. Saudi demands—including a nuclear program and a $100 billion weapons deal—are already advancing independently of normalization.

Riyadh has also improved ties with Iran, highlighted by the Saudi defense minister’s visit to Tehran. All of this worries Israel. According to Israeli sources, the Saudis now view normalization as impossible as long as the war in Gaza continues and Israel rejects a Palestinian state.

The ball is now in Trump’s court. Will he drop the previous U.S. administration’s linkage between Saudi normalization and American concessions? Or is he focused solely on securing the massive Saudi investments—up to $1 trillion—that Riyadh is prepared to pour into the U.S.?

Trump’s mid-May visit to Saudi Arabia could have major implications for Israel.

Photo: Reuters