This time, spurred by revolutionary slogans and the demands of his supporters, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei shifted his strategy and accepted the risk of direct confrontation, launching missile attacks on Israeli territory.

A week ago, during Eid al-Fitr prayers, Khamenei declared that "Israel must be punished and will be punished". Similarly, commanders of the infamous Islamic Revolutionary Guards had vowed a "decisive and regrettable response" to Israel’s attacks on Iran’s purported consulate in Syria.

While on the surface the promise of revenge appears to be a strategic mistake, it raises the question as to why the state would pursue such a course of action – despite the international, political, and economic consequences.

The religious approach appears rigid and uncompromising, not open to diverse methods or interpretations. It emphasizes demonstrating resilience, with resistance seen as crucial to victory. In this view, persisting with a "fighting" strategy, even if mistaken, signifies a steadfastness in belief and faith.

The policymaking process in the Islamic Republic, however, does not follow the pattern of rational choice or the model of a prudent actor.

Rationality in foreign policy is a model in which the government acts coherently, and policymaking and decisions are based on clear goals and national interests, defined priorities, sufficient information, and understanding of options to achieve those goals, provided that the likelihood of success and the benefits and costs of each chosen policy are examined and evaluated in advance