APR 28, 2024 JLM 71°F 06:32 PM 11:32 AM EST
Iran, Gulf states and "midnight" smuggling - what if talks in Vienna fail?

The British magazine "Economist" stressed the importance of economic ties between the Gulf states and Iran, also against the background of the tense political atmosphere, and noted the importance of reviving the nuclear agreement for all parties.

The magazine, under the headline "The Gulf is an economic lifeline for Iran," says that if no agreement is reached between Iran and the world powers, it may herald smuggling back to the port of Khasab in the Sultanate of Oman, and from there the goods will be smuggled on to other countries. 

The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries have vague relations with Iran, but political tensions exist in parallel with deep economic ties, which have become increasingly vital as the world powers seek to revive the 2015 nuclear deal.

Negotiations in Vienna were temporarily halted after the participating parties almost reached an agreement, due to the Russian request not to tie the sanctions imposed on it due to the invasion of Ukraine with its trade with Tehran.

The magazine's report notes that although the UAE sees Iran as a "threat" and has disputes with it over three islands, the two countries have "the strongest economic relations between the Gulf states", which is "partly" due to the presence of large numbers of Iranian immigrants in Dubai.

The two countries are major trading partners, as Iran accounts for about 3% of the UAE's annual exports, talking about doubling bilateral trade deals to $30 billion in 2025, and there are billions of dollars of Iranian assets in the emirate banks.

Despite U.S. sanctions, Iran exported up to a million barrels of oil a day, mostly to China, some of which was sent through a third country, including the UAE, which took a large part of this trade, worrying Washington, which sent a State Department delegation to Abu Dhabi last December to raise the issue of sanctions violations, the economist then claimed.

Qatar has also strengthened its trade relations with Iran, following the Gulf boycott in 2017, which exposed it to the accusation of former US President Donald Trump's administration of harming the "maximum pressure" campaign against Tehran.

The report states that the UAE had hoped that trade relations with Iran would help protect it from attacks, but it was attacked by the Houthis backed by Tehran last January, which damaged its "stability" reputation.

But despite the attacks, an Iranian trade delegation, led by the Minister of Trade, visited the United Arab Emirates last month.

"If the nuclear deal is revived, the UAE could offer billions of dollars in trade and investment in exchange for regional calm," Western Diplomat magazine quotes.

But if that does not happen, the smuggling operations may return to the port of Khasab.

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