A new analysis by Amit Segal argues that the US-Iran understanding is not a historic nuclear agreement — and not a catastrophe — but a temporary Hormuz deal shaped by American election politics.
According to the analysis, President Donald Trump’s main concern is preventing a global energy crisis before the US midterm elections.
A strike on Iran’s energy infrastructure, or a prolonged blockade, could send oil and gasoline prices soaring, trigger inflation and damage Republican chances in Congress. That is why Washington preferred a temporary arrangement that reduces pressure on energy markets without fully lifting sanctions on Iran.
The key point for Israel is that the agreement reportedly freezes Iran’s nuclear program, while giving Tehran only partial economic relief. But Lebanon remains the immediate test. Israel is still operating deep inside southern Lebanon, and the goal now is to preserve US backing, maintain deterrence, prevent Hezbollah from firing into Israel, and continue action against its rearmament inside the new security zone.