Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is closely watching developments in Washington amid growing uncertainty over the next US move against Iran. According to senior Israeli assessments, Netanyahu has not yet been informed of a final decision by Donald Trump, but the prevailing assumption in Jerusalem is that the White House may be pursuing a calculated strategy rather than a genuine attempt at compromise.

Israeli officials assess that Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei could agree to limited flexibility on the nuclear file in order to ease pressure, but is highly unlikely to concede on ballistic missile development or on continued support for Iran’s regional proxies. These red lines, Israel believes, are precisely what could be used to box Tehran into an inevitable refusal.

Within Israel’s security establishment, there is growing talk that Trump may be considering a “replay” of the June confrontation referred to internally as the “12 days” — a scenario in which Washington presents Iran with conditions it cannot accept, then moves decisively once Tehran predictably says no. For now, Netanyahu remains in a holding pattern, preparing for multiple scenarios while awaiting clarity from Washington.