Saudi Arabia appears to be stepping away from what could have been one of the most consequential strategic opportunities in modern Middle Eastern history: full participation in the Abraham Accords.
In recent weeks, Riyadh has moved to undercut the United Arab Emirates by pursuing a new regional military alignment with Egypt and Somalia, centered on Red Sea security and defense cooperation. Somalia’s decision to sever security and port ties with the UAE to join this framework is particularly telling. Rather than strengthening a unified pro-Western bloc, Saudi policy now seems focused on rivalry and hedging.
This shift is striking given how recently Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman completed a high-profile visit to Washington. There, Saudi Arabia reaffirmed its strategic relationship with the United States, signed major weapons procurement agreements, and pledged an extraordinary $1 trillion in future investments in the American economy. These are not the actions of a state supposedly drifting away from Washington — yet the regional moves tell a different story.
More troubling is the apparent cooling toward normalization with Israel and the broader Abraham Accords framework. By hesitating, Riyadh is forfeiting leadership in a new Middle East defined by open alliances, economic integration, intelligence cooperation, and a united front against Iran and its proxies. The UAE seized this moment early and decisively. Saudi Arabia, by contrast, is now watching from the sidelines.
