Following the sanctions imposed on dozens of tankers carrying Iranian and Russian oil in recent months, Reuters reported a significant jump in unsold oil reserves in the waters of these two countries.
Reuters, citing statistics from commodity intelligence company Kepler, reported that 10 to 20 million barrels have been added to Iran's oil reserves since the beginning of the year.
According to Kepler's estimate, 80 percent of Iran's oil reserves are stored in tankers anchored in the waters of Singapore and Malaysia.
Richard Bruns, head of geopolitics at energy consultancy Aspects, also pointed to the continued oil smuggling tactics of both countries, such as disabling and falsifying tanker automatic identification system messages and conducting ship-to-ship transfers of oil cargoes.
He added that this meant that the volume of unsold Iranian oil was likely higher than estimated, and estimates by energy consultancy Vortexa also showed that the amount of unsold Iranian oil exceeded 73 million barrels.
Since early January this year, China banned ships that had been sanctioned from entering the port of Shandong, which receives the bulk of oil shipped from Iran, Russia, and Venezuela.
Tanker chartering company Braemar told Reuters that 57% of the 126 large tankers involved in smuggling Iranian oil have been sanctioned by the United States so far.
Kepler says Iran is struggling to find new, unsanctioned tankers to transport oil.
Recently, new US President Donald Trump signed an order to revive the “maximum pressure policy” against Iran, which aims to reduce Iran’s oil exports to “zero.” Although he expressed hope that this lever would not have to be used.
Homayoun Falakshahi, a senior expert at Kepler, told Radio Farda that if US pressure on China, Iran’s only oil customer, works, Iran’s daily oil sales will likely decrease by half a million barrels per day in the coming months.
RUSSIA’S SITUATION WORSENS
On January 12, the US Treasury Department imposed sanctions on 183 tankers carrying Russian oil to China and India, eight of which were also involved in smuggling Iranian oil.
Following the sanctions on these tankers in the final days of the Joe Biden administration, Russia’s unsold oil reserves have grown sharply.
Kepler estimates show that Russia’s oil reserves exceeded 88 million barrels on January 27 this year, an increase of 24% compared to January 10.
On the other hand, the cost of chartering a tanker to transport Russian oil to China has tripled since the sweeping US sanctions, reaching a peak of $4.5 million, and the cost of insuring oil shipments has also soared.
The Reuters news agency writes that several tankers that previously secretly transported Iranian oil have switched to transporting Russian oil.