On Sept. 15, 2020, Israel signed the first and second of four normalization agreements with Arab countries that came to be known as the Abraham Accords. At the time, I believed that while the accords might generate a peace dividend, I didn't see any immediate economic benefit to Israel.

The two strongest economies among the countries involved, the UAE and Israel, were quite different and didn't trade in appropriate directions (export for one and import for the other).

Yet on the accords' third anniversary, I stand corrected and am pleased to admit it. Since the signing of the agreements, a series of economic activities have yielded mixed but mostly encouraging results, especially from Israel's perspective.

For example, over the last three years there have been 470,000 visits to the UAE by Israelis, but few from the other direction. The same pattern has played out between Morocco and Israel. It had been expected that the accords would generate "religious" tourism from the Arab states to Israel, particularly to Jerusalem. To date, that hasn't materialized.

Similarly, in regard to the direct flights established between Israel and the UAE, Bahrain, and Morocco, most of this development has benefited Israeli tourists and not those traveling to Israel.

However, the stronger measure of the success or failure of the accords lies in evaluating the economic trade they have generated in comparison with Israel's two prior peace agreements with Arab states – Egypt (1978) and Jordan (1994). Both agreements generated high expectations that trade between Israel and its two former adversaries would strengthen ties. What has emerged, rather, has come to be known as a "cold peace" – especially from an economic perspective.

Despite the 45-year-old peace agreement, trade between Israel and Egypt in 2022 came to $306.9 million ($179.5 million in imports and $127.4 million in exports), and trade with Jordan came to $535 million ($469 million in imports and $66.5 million in exports). Compare this with $2.56 billion in Israeli trade with the UAE in 2022 ($1.89 billion imports and $670m in exports), which was 47.6% higher than the nations' bilateral trade in 2021.

Total trade between Israel and the four accords countries in 2022 was $3.43 billion, four times the trade with the Jewish state's veteran Arab peace partners.

More importantly, institutions have been established and funded to strengthen these trade ties. Israel, the UAE, and the US have established the Abraham Fund, capitalizing it with $3 billion. And in May of 2022, Israel and the UAE signed a Free Trade Agreement, with the declared goal to eliminate duties on 98% of imports.

While Saudi Arabia has yet to formally join the UAE, Bahrain, Morocco and Sudan in the accords, Riyadh now allows Israeli civilian aircraft to fly over its airspace on the way to Asia. This reduces the fuel and cost that Israeli airlines need to fly to Asia; and cuts down on travel time for passengers.

Given the robust relations between Israel and its relatively new Arab peace partners, the Abraham Accords have indeed produced a warm peace – in stark contrast to Egypt and Jordan, who seem reluctant to trade with Israel despite decades of peace. From that vantage point, the Abraham Accords should be considered a significant economic success.

Source - Israel Hayom/X - Image - Reuters