Senior Israeli officials are warning that Iran is trying to use the negotiations with the US to buy time, harden its positions and wait for a more convenient political moment in Washington.
According to Israeli assessments, President Trump believes that Israeli strikes in Beirut’s Dahiyeh neighborhood could cause Iran to walk away from the nuclear talks, or even trigger a direct Iranian attack on Israel. This concern was reportedly behind the tough phone call between Trump and Prime Minister Netanyahu, after which a planned Israeli strike in Beirut was canceled.
But in Jerusalem, officials fear that Tehran interpreted the move as American weakness. Israeli officials believe Iran now sees an opportunity to demand more restrictions on Israeli military activity in Lebanon, while using the talks to rebuild pressure on Israel and avoid paying a real price for its aggression.
The concern is that Iran will try to drag out the process until the US midterm elections, believing Trump will want to avoid another major Middle East escalation before Americans go to the polls. In Israel, the fear is that every delay gives Iran and Hezbollah more room to recover, reorganize and test the limits of American pressure.