There is no doubt that removing the burdens on the energy sector will help Iran increase oil exports, even though it already exports between 1 and 1.5 million barrels per day while bypassing the sanctions regime.
Today there are about 90 million barrels of Iranian oil that are looking for a buyer and if the sanctions are lifted they will be sold in a market that is hungry for energy inputs, mainly in Europe.
But if Iran thinks it is going to sell each barrel for around $100, it is likely to be disappointed.
According to calculations, in this situation the price of a barrel will drop in the second half of 2023 to 65 dollars per barrel, compared to about 95 this week mainly due to the competition that will arise.