Following the 2003 US invasion of Iraq, Iran’s Quds Force, under Gen Qasem Soleimani, used Shiite militias to dominate Iraq. Iran now seeks to apply this model in Jordan and the West Bank, exploiting instability to expand its regional influence.
IRAN’S RECENT SETBACKS
Despite its ambitions, Iran has suffered heavy blows
- Hezbollah has been severely weakened by Israeli operations
- Syria has slipped from Iranian control as Sunni factions gain ground
- Hamas has been devastated by Israel’s response to the October 7 attacks
- Israeli strikes on Iranian defense infrastructure have exposed Tehran’s vulnerability
However, these setbacks are seen as temporary by Iran’s leadership, which remains committed to its long term strategy of regional destabilization.
IRAN’S GROWING THREAT IN JORDAN, JUDEA AND SAMARIA
Iran is using various tactics to undermine Jordan’s pro Western monarchy and strengthen anti Israel networks
- Arming Militants Iranian backed groups are smuggling weapons into Jordan and the Judea and Samaria
- Radicalizing Local Populations Iran is funding extremist factions and exploiting socio economic grievances
- Building Proxy Networks Iran is fostering localized power structures similar to Hezbollah in Lebanon
- Cyber Warfare Iranian operatives are spreading propaganda to incite unrest in Jordan
- Targeting Jordanian Leadership Intelligence suggests potential threats to King Abdullah II
US AND ISRAELI STRATEGIC CONCERNS
Iran’s infiltration of Jordan and Judea and Samaria poses a direct threat to US and Israeli security.
A weakened Jordan could become a battleground for Iranian proxies while Iranian backed militancy in Judea and Samaria increases the risk of conflict with Israel To counter Iran’s aggression strengthening regional alliances and intelligence cooperation is crucial.