JUL 12, 2025 JLM 82°F 06:26 PM 11:26 AM EST
Will the ceasefire lead to Normalization with Saudi Arabia?  

Since the outbreak of the war, Saudi Arabia has intensified its rhetoric against Israel, with public statements from Riyadh becoming increasingly critical—even hostile. 

The peak of this shift occurred in November of last year when Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman accused Israel of committing "collective genocide" against Palestinians in Gaza. Such remarks, unprecedented from the de facto leader of the kingdom, contrasted sharply with his pre-war stance on Israel.  

Beyond rhetoric, Saudi Arabia has also taken an active role in advocating for the Palestinian cause in ways it never had before. Seeking to capitalize on the region's anti-Israel sentiment, Riyadh has positioned itself as a champion of Palestinian rights. 

It has spearheaded an international "alliance" aimed at advancing the establishment of a Palestinian state. For Saudi Arabia, image and perception are as critical as substance—they aspire to be seen as the key players responsible for ultimately achieving Palestinian statehood.  

From the start of the war, the kingdom called for an immediate ceasefire. When it was finally achieved, the Saudi Foreign Ministry welcomed it, expressing hope that it would also bring an end to what it described as "Israeli barbarism and aggression" in Gaza. 

Initially, Saudi Arabia's demands were centered on an Israeli military withdrawal from Gaza. 

However, more recently, the kingdom expanded its position, calling for Israel’s withdrawal from "all Arab territories," including positions held by the IDF in southern Lebanon and the Syrian Golan Heights. This shift aligns Saudi Arabia more closely with the broader Arab consensus.  

Saudi Arabia is open to normalization with Israel, provided it secures key American incentives that would otherwise be difficult to obtain. However, since the start of the war, Riyadh has explicitly linked normalization to the establishment of a Palestinian state—a connection it did not make before.  

Looking at the situation optimistically, Saudi Arabia’s embrace of the Palestinian issue could be seen as a stabilizing factor. By taking ownership of the cause, the kingdom makes it harder for radical elements to exploit it for influence. Additionally, Saudi Arabia's clear linkage between a ceasefire and normalization suggests that the truce is not just a prerequisite but potentially the first step toward renewed diplomatic engagement.  

Following the ceasefire announcement, the Saudi Foreign Minister stated that the kingdom has a vested interest in ensuring its full implementation. He emphasized that all regional actors bear responsibility for maintaining the agreement—a message directed at Hamas but also at other parties. 

Under a potential Trump administration, Riyadh might find it easier to shift its stance on the Palestinian issue, but it would still require key conditions: a sustained ceasefire, a full Israeli withdrawal from Gaza, and the initiation of reconstruction efforts.  

U.S. policy on Iran will also play a crucial role in Saudi Arabia’s calculations. A stronger Saudi strategic position would allow it to take more risks in other areas. The more resolute a future Trump administration is in countering Iran’s nuclear ambitions, the easier it may become for Riyadh—and perhaps even Israel—to show greater flexibility on the Palestinian issue.

 

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Comments
Neil Kay 05:28 17.02.2025
Israel must do what is critical for its survival, and prospective relations with Saudi Arabia, while very nice, are far from critical
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