President Trump has long believed that America’s economic leverage has been systematically squandered by its own ruling class. For this he has been accused—by economists, editorial boards, and the entirety of Davos—of misunderstanding trade. But the latest word from the economics profession is… not so fast.

A new CESifo working paper, blandly titled “Making America Great Again? The Economic Impacts of Liberation Day Tariffs,” lands with all the drama of a footnote—until you read what it actually says. If the U.S. can impose tariffs without sparking retaliation, it can come out ahead. Higher wages. Smaller trade deficit. Slightly lower taxes. A net gain in welfare. That’s not a MAGA slogan. That’s a math-based result.

The study, authored by economists from UC Davis, the Norwegian School of Economics, Indiana University, and the University of Milan, builds a global trade model to simulate Trump’s April 2 tariff policy—what he called “Liberation Day.” 

The tariffs include a 10 percent base rate, with surcharges for countries that run persistent trade surpluses with the U.S. — 20 percent for the European Union, 54 percent for China, etc. The CESifo authors run the numbers and conclude: If foreign governments don’t retaliate, the U.S. gains. The trade deficit drops by 18 percent. Welfare ticks up by 1.13 percent. Tariff revenue offsets income taxes. Even employment nudges higher.

Of course, there’s a catch—one that the economists are at pains to highlight. Retaliation reverses the gains. If the EU or China responds in kind, the U.S. loses. The benefits evaporate. Prices rise. Output and employment fall. It’s all in the model.

This would be the part where the policy gets shelved — except Trump has read the same model and responded accordingly.