• Last night Iranian ballistic missiles struck the southern cities of Dimona and Arad, injuring nearly 200 people—11 of them seriously—after Israeli air defenses failed to intercept two missiles. Iran said it was targeting Israel’s Negev Nuclear Research Center near Dimona, claiming the strikes were in retaliation for an alleged U.S. attack on Natanz, which the IDF denied. As a result of the attacks, in-person schooling—which had resumed in certain areas of the country—has been canceled for the next two days.
• Fifteen people were wounded—most lightly—in an Iranian missile strike on central Israel this morning. The ballistic missile carried a cluster bomb warhead, scattering bomblets across a wide area.
• Trump threatened last night to destroy Iran’s power plants “starting with the biggest one first” if the Strait of Hormuz is not fully opened within 48 hours. The ultimatum follows signs of growing international acceptance of Iran’s position. Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi told Japan’s Kyodo News that Tehran has begun talks with Tokyo about possibly allowing Japanese-linked vessels through the strait. Meanwhile, Iran is reportedly considering a separate proposal to levy transit fees on ships passing through—an attempt to monetize its grip on the waterway.
• The Pentagon is deploying a second amphibious ready group to the Middle East in as many weeks—adding roughly 2,200 to 2,500 troops. This follows last week’s deployment of a 5,000-strong force based in Japan, bringing total U.S. troop levels in the region to approximately 50,000.
• Iran fired two ballistic missiles at the joint U.K.–U.S. base at Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean—and missed. One missile failed in flight; the other was intercepted by a U.S. warship. The attempted strike revealed something significant: the missiles traveled roughly 4,000 kilometers, double Iran’s previously declared self-imposed limit of 2,000 kilometers—putting most of Western Europe within range.

Now, on to the details.

After a night in which nearly 200 people were injured by two missiles that evaded Israeli air defenses, one could be forgiven for thinking the war has entered a dangerous new phase. Thankfully—and tragically—it is simply a matter of statistics.

Two missiles aimed at Israel’s nuclear research facility fell on the nearby cities of Dimona and Arad in the same night, creating the impression that holes have opened in Israel’s air defense. But the numbers tell a different story. Of the nearly 500 launches toward Israel over 23 days of war, only six have resulted in direct hits—an interception rate of roughly 99 percent. No system is perfect, and eventually there will be a bad night. Last night, the system didn’t run out of interceptors, it simply missed.