Both Hamas and PIJ maintain “close ties with Iran, which is directly, and through Hezbollah, trying to synchronize activities against Abbas, against the Fatah organization, and against P.A. security forces,” said Ganor.

“For a number of years, these elements have pursued a policy of building and strengthening an operational infrastructure in the West Bank, under the P.A. and Israeli intelligence radar to the extent possible, all in order to prepare for the day that Abbas leaves the Palestinian arena, and to enable these organizations to take over the West Bank, the P.A., and the PLO,” he added.

Still, he said, a repeat of Hamas’s violent coup in Gaza in 2007 in Judea and Samaria is unrealistic due to Israel’s military and intelligence presence on the ground.

“Abbas has, as head of the P.A., made many policy and security mistakes. He did not pick up on the opportunity given to him by the Olmert government at the time to advance the peace process, he did not act to create confidence by Israel in the P.A, and between Israelis and Palestinians. He did not act with determination against anti-Israel incitement, and himself contributed to it,” said Ganor.

“While unlike his predecessor Yasser Arafat, Abbas did not support terrorism against Israel, and he understood that these actions endanger the Palestinian national interest, he did not translate this insight into stopping payments to families of terrorists and payments to incarcerated terrorists in Israeli prisons,” said Ganor.

“Such a step could have harmed the terror infrastructure in the West Bank, but would have certainly harmed Abbas’s popularity in the Palestinian arena. Abbas has, over the years, in this sense, tried to walk along a tightrope,” he added.

As uncertainty continues to envelop Judea and Samaria, the race to succeed Abbas within the P.A. and Fatah is underway. It remains to be seen whether this competition and other factors described above will see the P.A. fall apart and its territory fall to Islamist jihadist forces, or whether a successor might emerge who is strong enough to stabilize the area.

Hamas, for its part, is gambling heavily on the former scenario, and focusing many of its current efforts towards realizing it.

Photo: Reuters